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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.